Wave Strength and Estimation

"...Seas 3-5'..."good reason.) According to the NOAA website, wave
How does this statement make you feel? Safe?height is expressed in terms of what is the average
Secure? Just another "calm, nothing can go wrong"height of the highest 1/3 of all waves in that region.
day on the ocean? It SHOULDN'T!! Let's look at justHere's an example they give for a significant wave
exactly what it means:height of 10 feet:
Three to five feet. For most of us that about from our1 in 10 waves will be larger than 11 ft
waist to our shoulders. No big deal, right? Typically, no.1 in 100 waves will be larger than 16 ft
ASSUMING that the waves absolutely do not get any1 in 1000 waves will larger than 19 ft
bigger. We all know what assuming does however,There are occasional reports of "rogue" waves of an
right? "Assuming" is the name of the city whereeven greater ratio
Murphy lives. (In case you haven't met Mr. Murphy, youTherefore, assuming a wave period of 8 seconds, for
are an extremely lucky individual!! He lives by the beliefa significant wave height of 10 feet, a wave 19 feet or
that what can go wrong, will go wrong at exactly thehigher will occur every 8,000 seconds (2.2 hours).
wrong time!!)We can see that the danger waves pose to a vessel
What exactly are waves? How are they formed?is both a function of the height of the wave and the
The waves you see lapping the side of your boat areperiod (that is, how frequent the waves come.) If we
formed by two sources:reduce the wave period in half to 4 seconds, then we
- Local WIND wavesfind that big 19' wave every 4,000 seconds or 1.1 hours.
- Distantly generated SWELL wavesIf we are out on the open seas for half a day, say 4-6
The wave height is measured from crest to trough, orhours, chances are very good we will see one of
the top of the "hill" to the bottom of the "valley." Thethese 19' waves.
NOAA computes wave height by the followingThis information isn't meant to scare anybody into not
formula:believing the weather service, or deter you from
SEAS =√(s^2 + w^2), where S is the height ofenjoying sailing where wave height is of a concern.
the swell waves and W is the height of the windKeep in mind, however, that nothing is absolute, the
waves. If we take a wind value of 7', and a swellweather changes as fast as predictions are made,
value of 7' also and use the formula we come up withand in the end all we can rely on is our experience and
an answer of 9.9' seas. Now, does this mean that notraining. Being well informed is half the battle. The other
waves will be over 10'? NO! The National Weatherhalf is what we do with that information!!
Service is fairly conservative in their estimation (for