| #ffffff;" /> | | | | voters and stun competitors. They also predicted that |
| There’s a lot of difference between expecting | | | | Michael would not win but lose by a marginal number |
| something to happen, hoping for something to happen, | | | | to John McCain, Arizona’s maverick senator. |
| assuming that something will happen, and predicting | | | | None of this came true! John never contested the |
| something to happen; logically or otherwise. While | | | | election and as far as presidency is concerned, we all |
| predicting on the basis of logical assumptions is all right, | | | | know that the winner is Barrack Obama. |
| I simply don’t understand how some folks risk | | | | Jim Cramer, one of the popular CNBC host informed |
| their reputation by not only predicting something publicly, | | | | publicly in March’08 that Bear Sterns is not in |
| but saying it with so much confidence, you’d | | | | trouble and no one in their right minds should disinvest |
| think they replying “yes” to being | | | | from it. What happened? Within six days, the stocks |
| question “are you alive”. Here are some | | | | price went down by ninety percent and was finally |
| “outrageous predictions” which | | | | sold to JPMorgan Chase for pennies. |
| backfired on those who made them (you may or may | | | | In mid 2008, Arjun Murti, the oil analyst at Goldman |
| not have read about them; nevertheless, worth | | | | Sachs predicted oil to touch $200 a barrel within 6 to |
| reading): | | | | 24 months. As of writing this, it seems to touch a |
| Somewhere in mid 2007, Dennis Blair and Kenneth | | | | record low of $40. |
| Lieberthal had predicted that “The risks to | | | | The British newsweekly ran an editorial praising the |
| maritime flows of oil are far smaller than | | | | quality of Kenya’s democracy and predicted |
| assumed”. They gave several reasons to back | | | | that it might set an example for the rest of the |
| their words. These were: It would require a naval | | | | continent. This came just a week before the |
| power having the strength that matched the US, to | | | | presidential elections. Not by a long shot! What |
| seriously disrupt oil shipments. Secondly, limited regional | | | | followed was a horrible month of riot and bloodshed. |
| conflicts wouldn’t much affect traffic, simply | | | | Voter fraud and ballot stuffing were some great |
| ruling out any economic effects if terrorists attacked | | | | “unpredictions”, if such a word exists in |
| the shipping industry. They even said that tankers are | | | | the dictionary. Over 800 people (official figures only) |
| not so vulnerable. What happened? | | | | were killed and a phenomenal 200,000 were injured |
| November’08 saw a group of Somali pirates | | | | and /or harmed in the carnage. The country was |
| hijacking a Saudi oil tanker carrying 2 million barrels of | | | | deeply divided and the government was delegitimized, |
| crude oil in the Indian Ocean. Surprisingly, they came | | | | with power shared between the President Mwai Kibaki |
| only in “inflatable rafts”! As per the | | | | and Raila Odinga, his challenger. |
| Piracy Reporting Center, ship hijacking by pirates has | | | | Finally, if you remember the case of the Large Hydron |
| actually quadrupled this year! Ironically, the essay was | | | | Collider, the scientist Walter Wagner predicted that |
| called “Smooth Sailing: The world’s | | | | there was a great possibility of creating destructive |
| shipping lanes are safe”. | | | | theoretical anomalies like black holes, strangelets and |
| In the beginning of 2008, BusinessWeek had predicted | | | | deSitter space transitions. This would alter matter and |
| that New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg will enter the | | | | destroy the planet. He had filed a lawsuit against the |
| presidential race on the basis of his financial power | | | | European Organization for Nuclear Research which |
| and organization; which was expected to impress | | | | built the collider. What happened? |